Pure investors from the UK have disappeared from a holiday home market now dominated by cash-rich lifestyle buyers, according to new research from Savills. The report from Savills International Research and holiday lettings company HomeAway.co.uk, revealed how far the overseas property market in the UK had fallen over the last year. Just 2% of the 430,000 foreign-home owners in the UK bought their property in 2009, compared to 70% who bought between 2003 and 2008. “By spring 2009 Savills International noted that interest in international holiday homes had returned, albeit at far lower levels than previous years,” said the report. “The market has now reverted back to traditional, end-user buyers (as opposed to investors), and mostly in traditional, established hotspots.” The high number of distressed sales that have contributed to oversupply and falling prices has helped keep pure investors out of the market, it added. “In contrast to previous years, investors solely seeking to capitalise on upward price movement are no longer active in the market place.” Savills’ head of international, Charles Weston-Baker, told OPP that mid-market buyers had also started to return to the market. “We have started to see more grassroots sales coming through,” he said. “The very top of the market has largely been unaffected, but now end-users who are looking for lower-priced but quality property are buying to enjoy the product. “We’ve also noticed how important sport has become to buyers, especially for baby boomers and those retiring. There’s a new enthusiasm for experiential holidays and buyers need a reason to be somewhere, such as golf or horseriding. We seem to have jumped 20 years in aging, where people are slowing down at 80 rather than 60.” The report predicts another quiet year for the UK holiday home market, with most sales taking place to high-income lifestyle buyers in traditional locations, with little activity in the speculative or off-plan markets. In 2009, although property in France, Portugal and Spanish property remained the most popular destinations for Savills’ buyers, the proportion of people buying in western Europe overall decreased, as the popularity of central and southeastern Europe (particularly Cyprus, Greece and Turkey) and the Caribbean grew. However, the sample base for 2009’s results was much smaller than in previous years. The proportion of people buying in major cities and in villages grew substantially at the expense of smaller towns and isolated rural locations. The popularity of purpose-built resorts also increased. “This reflects not only the growth in preference for such developments but also the rise in quality and quantity of such communities,” said the report. Interest in buying property to renovate or improve also fell, mirroring the rise in resorts where ready-to-go homes maximise letting potential. Savills’ market has become skewed towards mid-to-top end buyers, and properties worth more than £200,000 now form the majority of purchases, with a particular fall in popularity of homes worth less than £100,000. Story from OPP (registration)

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Spain Sees Return of International Lifestyle Buyer

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The Ministry of Development has just released some statistics that help illustrate the severity of Spain’s construction boom and bust. What is worse, there is no quick solution as much of the trouble is stored up in a new homes glut that will take years for the market to digest. The new figures show that 387,000 new homes were finished last year, despite a property market crash already into its second year. Compare this to the 220,600 new home sales recorded by the National Institute of Statistics for 2009, and you get an over-supply of around 166,500 new homes that joined the glut of new homes languishing on the market in search of a buyer. As a result there might now be something like 1.1 to 1.2 million new homes on the market, the equivalent of the entire housing stock in Madrid. BBVA, one of Spain’s largest banks, put the figure last year at 1.1 million, to which we need to add the new 166,442 finished and not sold in 2009. The developers’ association and the Ministry of Housing are more optimistic in their estimates of between 700,000 – 750,000 new homes on the market, but even at that level it will take years for the market to absorb. How much is too many new homes? It all depends on how many new households start each year, as new household formation drives demand for new homes. Last year, there were around 225,500 new households formed in Spain, down from 300,000 plus p.a. in the boom years. New household formation surged as immigrants flooded into the country and changing demographics and life-style choice (for example and increasing divorce rate) pushed up the demand for housing. But even at the boom level of 300,000 new households a year, it is now clear that Spain was building way too much Spanish property . In 2006, for example, there were 865,500 planning approvals, (though not all of them went on to become housing starts). And in 2007 there were a record 641,500 housing completions. Now even if you assume that demand for second homes was a generous 200,000 per year, Spain was still building something like 200,000 or more excess homes per year. Now they are idling on the market, tying up capital, and dragging down the Spanish economy’s productive potential. At least supply has finally adjusted to demand, though the astonishing collapse in new residential construction is creating economic havoc (a collapse in new building is just as bad for the economy as too much building). Residential planning approvals last year were down to 110,000, the lowest level since the present data series began, and lower even than the 1970’s, when the population was much smaller. A couple of examples will illustrate how severe the shock has been. In Malaga city (550,000 residents), planning approvals have fallen from 7,500 in 2003 to 800 last year. And in Madrid, the Spanish capital, they have fallen from 35,000 in 2003 to 3,375 last year. That’s a drop of almost 90%. Therein lies the key clue to Spain’s serious economic problems. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Boom & Bust

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The Ministry of Development has just released some statistics that help illustrate the severity of Spain’s construction boom and bust. What is worse, there is no quick solution as much of the trouble is stored up in a new homes glut that will take years for the market to digest. The new figures show that 387,000 new homes were finished last year, despite a property market crash already into its second year. Compare this to the 220,600 new home sales recorded by the National Institute of Statistics for 2009, and you get an over-supply of around 166,500 new homes that joined the glut of new homes languishing on the market in search of a buyer. As a result there might now be something like 1.1 to 1.2 million new homes on the market, the equivalent of the entire housing stock in Madrid. BBVA, one of Spain’s largest banks, put the figure last year at 1.1 million, to which we need to add the new 166,442 finished and not sold in 2009. The developers’ association and the Ministry of Housing are more optimistic in their estimates of between 700,000 – 750,000 new homes on the market, but even at that level it will take years for the market to absorb. How much is too many new homes? It all depends on how many new households start each year, as new household formation drives demand for new homes. Last year, there were around 225,500 new households formed in Spain, down from 300,000 plus p.a. in the boom years. New household formation surged as immigrants flooded into the country and changing demographics and life-style choice (for example and increasing divorce rate) pushed up the demand for housing. But even at the boom level of 300,000 new households a year, it is now clear that Spain was building way too much Spanish property . In 2006, for example, there were 865,500 planning approvals, (though not all of them went on to become housing starts). And in 2007 there were a record 641,500 housing completions. Now even if you assume that demand for second homes was a generous 200,000 per year, Spain was still building something like 200,000 or more excess homes per year. Now they are idling on the market, tying up capital, and dragging down the Spanish economy’s productive potential. At least supply has finally adjusted to demand, though the astonishing collapse in new residential construction is creating economic havoc (a collapse in new building is just as bad for the economy as too much building). Residential planning approvals last year were down to 110,000, the lowest level since the present data series began, and lower even than the 1970’s, when the population was much smaller. A couple of examples will illustrate how severe the shock has been. In Malaga city (550,000 residents), planning approvals have fallen from 7,500 in 2003 to 800 last year. And in Madrid, the Spanish capital, they have fallen from 35,000 in 2003 to 3,375 last year. That’s a drop of almost 90%. Therein lies the key clue to Spain’s serious economic problems. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Boom & Bust

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I believe that the best way to go about searching for Spanish properties in the current market is as follows: 1.    research the areas so that you have a specific location in mind, eg Marbella 2.    browse the internet and speak to agents with properties advertised in your chosen area. 3.    ask the agents how they work – do they have their own stock of properties and do they have access to any more? 4.    ask them if they collaborate with other agents, and ask them if they work purely as ´property finders´ . With the sheer volume of properties in Spain for sale, many prospective buyers are turning to Property Finders for guidance. Here is why: Good property finders will have access to several thousand properties via their network of agents and the various multi-listing databases at their disposal. They will also have an intimate knowledge of your chosen location, and will be able to suggest plenty of options to help you. Property finders work by talking to you at length to ascertain your buying criteria, and they will then approach other agents via their network to get hold of the most suitable stock – imagine Phil and Kirsty on Location Location Location! This means that instead of only having a few hundred of the agent´s own properties to choose from, buyers can literally access the entire portfolio of available property in their chosen location. The other huge benefit is that buyers only need one point of contact to co-ordinate viewings, so rather than having to liasie with several different agents, you can work ´with´ the property finder very closely to fine-tune the search and secure the best property. Also, property finders have no allegiance to the vendors, so they are sure to try and secure the best possible deals for the buyer. Also, they are not tied by the handcuffs of representing both parties and so can give you their honest opinion of the Spanish properties that you are inspecting. And if you think this property finding service attracts an up-front cost, you are wrong. Property finders simply take a cut of the commission that the listing agent earns from the vendor. Related Posts Advice to Buyers – Who Can You Trust in the Spanish Property Market? - PART 1 The Weak Pound – Tips for UK Buyers of Spanish Property – Part 2 Mortgages in Spain

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Advice to Buyers – Who Can You Trust in the Spanish Property Market? - PART 2

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Something’s wrong with the Spanish property market, writes S. McCoy in a recent article at Cotizalia.com, a financial news website. His analysis points towards a big and desirable fall in house prices – up to 50% by 2011 says McCoy. However, there is no sign of this in the “imaginary” official figures, nor in any of the reports produced by the sector. On top of which the government and some banks are already claiming that the market has touched bottom. So what is wrong with the market, and why haven’t prices fallen more? asks McCoy. Supply and demand With a glut variously estimated between 800,000 and 2,000,000 unsold homes, and sales of around 200,000 homes a year, it’s going to take 4 years to liquidate the glut, in the best case, points out McCoy for starters. You would expect prices to be tumbling. House prices to income A good way to judge the level of property prices is the ratio of Spanish property prices over annual disposable income, which ignores mortgage financing issues. This rose to over 7 years at the height of the boom, and has now fallen back to 6.5 years because, although house prices have fallen somewhat, so have incomes. But that is a long way off the historical average of 4, suggesting price falls still have a long way to go. Rental yields Another way to judge property prices is the relationship between rental income and prices (rental yields), a type of inverted price earnings ratio. Higher yields mean better value. Gross rental yields fell to 2% during the boom, below even interest rates. Now that house prices are falling rental yields should be going up, right? Wrong. The property glut is driving down yields, as more owners try to rent out property they can’t sell. Yields tell us that, at present prices, property is a bad investment, so you would expect prices to fall more. But they aren’t. So why aren’t prices falling more? McCoy gives 3 reasons: Because interest rates are so low. That gives borrowers some breathing space, and allows developers to limp along as zombies for longer. Low financing costs mean banks can avoid selling at a loss, by not selling at all. Because borrowers in Spain are liable for negative equity, which gives them a big incentive to do everything they can to avoid foreclosure. Borrowers may be in a lot of financial distress, but this keeps some of it from reaching the market. Because unemployment benefits and the black economy mean that many of the unemployed have managed to keep paying the mortgage, until now at least. If the economic recession continues for much longer, and if interest rates rise, the distress in the system will reach breaking point, then prices will tumble, warns McCoy. But the sooner the better, he says. “That’s the only way to bring about Schumpeter’s creative destruction, so necessary for this country.” I should point out, however, that McCoy is talking about the wider market, including all that speculative primary housing built around cities like Madrid and Barcelona. The situation may be even worse for speculative holiday homes in subprime locations, but it’s probably a lot better for prime and A grade property in the best holiday home locations. The market for A+ property in the best locations is international, and not so exposed to the economic situation in Spain. Story from Mark Stucklin

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The Real McCoy on Spanish House Prices

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No interest rate change from Bank of England, FOMC or the ECB. Sterling shrugs off £25 billion of additional QE measures. UK data had less influence on currency levels during last week, with the main focus on how much the Bank of England (BoE) would expand its existing quantitative easing (QE) programme. Nevertheless, it’s worth looking at some of the numbers. Industrial production came first and provided a pleasant surprise when September’s figure came in at 1.6% month on month, versus the previous month’s -2.5%, and above the 1.2% expectation. However, this was more of a technical correction and flatters to deceive, as factories were closed for summer break and hence, falls short of suggesting a recovery across the industrial sector. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply (CIPS) services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also came in strong with a reading of 56.9 (versus the previous 55.3) - its highest level since August 2007. Though construction PMI showed a small drop, the manufacturing number posted an impressive rise to a two-year high at 53.7. Add to this the latest rise in the Halifax house price index and it is no surprise that the market started to scale down its previous expectations of a £50bn addition to the BoE’s QE programme. As expected, UK interest rates were kept at 0.5%. The actual amount of additional QE money to be made available came in at just another £25bn, with an anticipation that the extension would take three months to complete. Sterling actually went up straight after this announcement, as the market was clearly expecting more. EUR / USD traded within an even tighter range of 1.4720 - 1.4900. There was very little important data from the eurozone early in the week, with only an inflation indicator to go on. Better than expected PMI numbers were seen, with those relating to the service sector well above expectations. On Thursday we saw the European Central Bank (ECB) leave interest rates on hold; not that any other outcome was ever on the cards. But it was the press conference that the markets were interested in. The president of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, gave one of his masterly performances - promising much, answering all, but saying very little. The market took the overall tone, however from his comment that “we will be timely but gradual in phasing out measures”. This was largely anticipated, with the disappointment of the risk traders that the stimulus was to be withdrawn tempered by the assertion that it would only be done gradually. So, with no dramatic surprises, the effect on the market was limited. Over in the states, news filtered through that another US bank, CIT, had filed for bankruptcy protection over the weekend. Asian markets did have a few moments of panic as they mistook the acronym for another much larger and already bailed-out bank. The tone for the first part of the week had been set; and despite some upside surprises in data, the week began with soft equities and a stronger USD. We saw an improvement from the US ISM manufacturing release up from 52.6 to 55.7, versus expectations of 53. On Wednesday evening we arrived at ‘central bank time’, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. There was no surprise to see rates left unchanged, though there were differing opinions as to where the slightly changed statement left markets. In what really looks like a fairly neutral result, the FOMC “continues to expect economic conditions to warrant exceptionally low rates for an extended period”. Friday’s release of the non-farm payrolls figure saw the announcement of another 190,000 jobs lost - which was slightly worse than expected - and the prior month’s figure was also revised down. The unemployment rate rose to 10.2%; much worse than the 9.9% forecast. This caused a brief bout of risk aversion and subsequent dollar strength, albeit rather muted by usual standards. In the UK, this week is a quiet one data-wise. Early on, we have British Retail Consortium (BRC) retail sales, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance and the UK Trade balance. On Wednesday we will see the long-awaited BoE quarterly inflation report. Stateside we have little data on Monday or Tuesday, which leads into the Veteran’s Day Holiday on Wednesday. This only leaves weekly jobless figures on Thursday and the US Trade balance reading on Friday. From the eurozone, we look forward to the German economic sentiment survey from the ZEW, as well as speeches from Jean Claude Trichet and Axel Weber of the ECB - which could also influence the rate. Get the best foreign exchange rates with no bank fees or commission charges using your Moneycorp Privilege Card

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Moneycorp: Stalemate for Sterling

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Spain’s housing market is broken and urgently needs fixing, argue a group of top-flight economists from Fedea, one of Spain’s leading economic policy think tanks. In a new report just released, ‘For a Housing Market that Works: A Proposal for Structural Reform’, a group of economists at Fadea, including Pol Antràs of Harvard University, Luis Garicano of the LSE, and Javier Díaz-Giménez of IESE Business School, explain how and why Spain’s housing market should be fixed to reduce social problems and help the economy recover. The report identifies a dysfunctional rental market as lying at the heart of the problem, causing serious economic and social consequences such as a bloated real estate sector, low productivity, over-indebted families, unaffordable housing, and low labour mobility. Just 13% of Spanish households live in rented accommodation, compared to > 40% in Germany and France, and around 30% in the UK. The report blames Spain’s regulatory framework and calls for immediate changes to liberalise the market. For example, the law restricts rental contracts, which makes it difficult for landlords and rental clients to agree conditions that might suit both parties. Even the Governor of the Bank of Spain is critical. “It’s ridiculous that the law prevents landlords from renting their properties for less than 5 years, even if tenants agree,” he told the Spanish press. Low labour mobility, reduced access to housing, high levels of unsatisfied demand for housing (especially amongst the young, as 65% of Spaniards between 25-29 live at home with parents, compared to 20% in France, Holland and the UK), and a glut of empty homes are all consequences of Spain’s small rental market. To encourage renting over buying, and address other structural problems in the housing market, the report recommends 4 urgent policy steps: Liberalise rental contracts and give landlords better legal protection. Remove all fiscal incentives that encourage buying over renting. Stop selling social housing and offer it for rent instead. Reduce or do away with taxes on property sales such as VAT and transfer tax. These steps should help mop up Spain’s housing glut, rebalance the market, improve access to housing, increase the incomes of small landlords, reduce the impact of the economic crisis on household budgets, and help reduce unemployment, argue the economists from Fadea. When experts of this calibre call for immediate action to solve a serious problem the government should sit up and listen. Sadly, the signs don’t look good. The Fadea report included some housing market statistics that can be summarised as follows: 1 million empty properties in Spain, the equivalent of 3 years of sales, compared to just 9 months of sales in USA. 16% of Spain’s housing stock lies empty, an exceptionally high level compared to other countries. 65% of Spaniards between 25-29 live at home with parents, compared to 20% in France, Holland and the UK. Just 13% of Spanish households live in rental accommodation rent, compared to > 40% in Germany and France, and around 30% in the UK. Spanish property prices doubled in real terms between 1999 and 2007, only comparable to the UK. Spain accounted for two thirds of all the homes built in the EU between 1999 and 2007. The average home in Spain cost 7.7 x average disposable household income in 2007, compared to just 3.6 x a decade earlier. 95% of Spanish mortgages are variable rate Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spain’s Rental Market in Need of Reform

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In Spain and the UK, there seems to be general disagreement about the state of their respective housing markets. In the UK, This is Money reports that house prices are now higher than they were a year ago as Britain’s property revival gathers pace. Meanwhile in Spain, 4 out of 5 of this weeks news articles cover the disparity between government spin about house prices and market reality. In Government & IMF Disagree Over Spanish House Prices we read that, according to official data, the Spanish government is calling the bottom of the market and time for buyers to return. The problem is that the official data doesn’t at all support this contention. The larger problem is that the official data is of no real value to anyone - due to a mix of shoddy reporting, inaccurate source data, and conflicting political and commercial interests. So what is really happening in Spain? My best guess about Spain is in line with Mark Stucklin’s - that house prices have fallen further than official data suggest. When a Spanish property is priced competitively - it sells. At the start of 2009, I asked What Will You Pay for a Spanish Property in 2010? . That advice still holds up - as well as advice in this article about How to Value Spanish Property . So, while official data state that Spanish property prices have only fallen 6% or so from their (inflation-adjusted) peak, I believe the actual fall to be between 20-25%. Obviously, this will vary by area and property, but I believe there is some truth in the government assertion that the bottom of the market is nigh. I also believe the IMF view that further falls will come - because Spain’s economy is so weak, its politicians so ineffective and their policies so irrelevant. I think that, with careful research, you can safely invest in Spanish property today, and be confident that you are buying at, or very near to, the bottom of the market - as I suggest in UK Recovery and the Spanish Property Market . It seems that many of you are thinking along those lines too. In last week’s newsletter, I mentioned the AIPP Guide to Buying Overseas Property Safely . At the time we published that article, we included a form to request a hard copy of the guide by post. So many of you did so that you completely depleted stocks of the guide in just a few days. You can still read the guide online , but that level of interest seems to speak of a group of people ready and waiting to pounce on property - when the time and price are right. So, what about the UK? Are property prices really increasing? My guess is that it’s a case of some and some, and I’d guess that the largest influence is the current weakness of Sterling attracting foreign buyers. That, and a limited supply of properties will artificially and temporarily drive up property prices in some areas. Although the fundamental economic indicators in the UK are much more healthy than in Spain, they’re not yet healthy enough to ensure a steady and smooth recovery. In Spain, and in the UK, the trick, as ever, is to find a realistically priced property - and make a cheeky offer. Martin Dell, Kyero.com

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Time to Buy Property in Spain?

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Home sales in Spain, not including social housing, fell 9.9% in August compared to the same time last year, according to the latest figures from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). A 10% fall may sound bad, but given the form this year it’s actually rather good. Spain’s leading daily El Pais suggests this another sign that the market if finding a floor, pointing out that this is the smallest year-on-year fall since the INE began publishing this data in January last year. On the other hand, August 2008 was itself a bad month, so maybe the comparison isn’t so flattering. Sales in August 2008 were down 40% on the preceding year, and fell 18% on a monthly basis. Nevertheless, the year-on-year sales trend has been improving since April. That said, on a cumulative basis sales this year to the end of August were still 32% below the same period last year, and 51% down compared to 2007. If you break down sales into new build and resales you notice an alarming deterioration in resales during August, only offset by the steady performance of new build sales. Resales, traditionally the biggest segment of the market, have lagged new build sales almost since Spain’s property market slump began, but looked like recovering in July. We will have to wait a few more months to see if resales ride to the recovery of the market or not. Spanish property prices began to deflate in the second half of 2008 after the global financial crisis paralysed mortgage lending and exposed a market glut of almost a million unsold new homes, equal to stocks recorded in much larger economies. Shrinking economic output, soaring unemployment and family and small business debt of around 200 percent of gross domestic product would mean a continued reevaluation of Spain’s overpriced property market, economists said. A Reuters housing poll of Spanish and foreign-based economists found that on average prices were expected to fall 32 percent from their 2007 peak. The number of houses sold in Spain fell 8.2 percent in August from July, the first monthly drop after three consecutive monthly gains indicated that, while the initial sharp drop had slowed, any market recovery would be weak. “Third quarter figures indicate the drop in Spanish property prices is stabilising, but any talk of a recovery should be viewed with caution,” the department of economic studies for savings bank Caixa Catalunya said. Prices would continue to shrink for at least another four quarters, economists at the savings bank said. Banks showed little sign of loosening their hold on new credit, one economist from M&G Valores said, after Spanish mortgage lending fell 33.9 percent year on year in July. Bargain hunters with capital to back loans would help take the edge off a plummeting market but any recovery would be weak until banks again started to lend more widely, the M&G Valores economist said. Story from Mark Stucklin and Forexyard

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August 2009: Bottom of the Spanish Property Market?

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There is increasing talk in the Spanish press about an incipient recovery in the housing market, largely based on some statistics suggesting the collapse in sales might be bottoming out. Beatriz Corredor, Spain’s Minister of Housing, says you can now buy with “no worries”. Is she right? First of all, what evidence is there the market has touched bottom? Spanish property prices are bottoming out, suggesting that the market is approaching a corner, according to the latest report from Tinsa, an appraisal company. The problem is, do you believe this data? It smells fishy. According to Pedro Pérez, president of the G-14 group of Spain’s biggest developers, new sales contracts (pre-sales) stabilised in the second quarter, after 2 years of continuous falls. Pre-sales “could have touched bottom” says Pérez, but he also concedes that sales are still feeble. That said Metrovacesa, one of Spain’s biggest developers, and a member of the G-14, reports pre-sales up 82% in the first 6 months of this year compared to the same period last year. Good news? Yes, but in revenue terms results were almost the same as last year’s low, thanks to declining prices. Other developers in the G14 report that sales are being made (which, in itself, is a big improvement on last year), mainly thanks to discounting. The collapse in Spanish property sales appears to be running out of steam, according to the latest monthly sales figures from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). There were 33,694 home sales in July (not including social housing), the biggest monthly sales figure this year, and only 19.6% lower than the same time last year. And according to figures from the Ministry of Housing, home sales in the second quarter were 8% higher than in the first, as the market display signs of life. “The impression we have of the property market is one of paralysis, but in the last 12 months almost half a million homes have been sold,” Corredor is quoted as saying. Corredor also argues that, thanks to lower property prices and lower interest rates, housing affordability has improved dramatically in the last year, meaning that people can now go ahead and buy “tranquilamente”, which I would translate as “with no worries”. Housing affordability has improved from 40% of gross household income in the second quarter of last year to 31% now, according to figures from the Bank of Spain, reported in the Spanish press. “With low interest rates and mortgages that allow them to live comfortably, without stress at the end of the month, families can now go ahead and buy a home without any worries,” was how Corredor put it (my translation). But The Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE) says it’s “still too soon to talk of a recovery” in a new report just released. Whilst noting a recent upturn in sales, which it attributes to improving housing affordability driven by lower interest rates , the report worries that the improvement in affordability may run out of steam, as interest rates are now almost as low as they can go. That means, looking forward, greater housing affordability will have to come from a “prolongation in the adjustment in prices” and an economic recovery that creates jobs and lifts consumer confidence. But right now, Spain’s economic recovery is still just a twinkle in Prime Minister Zapatero’s eye. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spain: Too Soon to Talk of Economic Recovery

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