Foreign Currency Markets Overshadowed by Greek Problems
Investors still not convinced that Greece can sort itself out without external help. Sterling and euro lumped with ‘risky’ currencies as dollar and yen push ahead. A one-cent range held sterling between €1.14 and €1.15. It opened in London this morning half a cent down on the week at €1.14. Until a month or so ago the world’s investors were still dismissing the fiscal problems of Greece as nothing more a little local difficulty in an unimportant south eastern corner of Europe. They were far more interested in how the German and French economic locomotives were hauling the rest of the continent ahead. Now, the tables are turned. Hard economic data, good or bad, get barely a moment’s attention. Instead, the focus is on the fiscal crisis in Greece which temporarily overshadows not just the euro but every currency and every market. The European Commission, the European Central Bank and the Euroland governments appear to have hardened up their attitude to Athens and the message to Prime Minister Papandreou is ‘Sort yourself out or else.’ Investors worry that it will not be as easy as that. Especially during the second half of last week the overriding sentiment among investors was a nervousness about everything. In a return to the risk-aversion tactics of last year they offloaded shares and reduced their holdings of ‘risky’ currencies, stocking up instead with the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen. Whilst it would be an exaggeration to call the trend a ‘flight to safety’ it was certainly a sign that there are still plenty of niggling doubts to trouble investors. Despite all the public optimism that a double-dip recession is out of the question, the market mumbles to itself about the risk of just such an outcome. As long as that mindset persists, national economic statistics and achievements will have to be spectacular if they are to offset investors’ underlying attitude to particular currencies. This was clearly the case last week for sterling. The purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) are an important economic barometer, showing growth when they rise above 50 and pointing to a slowdown when they move below that level. Monday’s UK manufacturing sector PMI came in at a surprisingly strong 56.7, beating equivalent figures from France, Germany, Switzerland and the Euro zone. With sterling in their bad books, investors refused to be impressed. At 54.5 Wednesday’s services sector PMI was higher than any of the opposition but, because it was two points lower than the previous month, investors used it as an excuse to sell the pound. It was a similar story with the euro, which stayed ahead of the pound only by dint of losing just two US cents compared with sterling’s three. The what-shall-we-do-about-Greece story dominated the proceedings, especially after the ECB president downplayed the expected pace of economic recovery to ‘gradual’ and made no reference to higher euro interest rates in the near future. After spending the best part three months between €1.09 and €1.13 the pound is doing its best to attach itself to a slightly higher range between €1.13 and €1.16. Do not get carried away: although the euro is lumbered with its Greek albatross the worries are still there about Britain’s general election, its budget gap and the durability of its credit rating. Buyers of the euro should take advantage of any spikes to hedge 50% of their exposure. Get the best foreign exchange rates with no bank fees or commission charges using your Moneycorp Privilege Card
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Foreign Currency Markets Overshadowed by Greek Problems


















