Spanish retail giant, Inditex - owner of Zara, Pull & Bear & Massimo Dutti chains posted impressive Q1 profits - proving that Spanish industry, innovation and manufacturing are possible, and profitable. Inditex posted a 17% rise in fourth-quarter profit on a 13% rise in revenue as the Spanish retailer saw strong growth in international markets and opened its fiscal year with rapid sales growth. For the quarter ended Jan. 31, the owner (ES:ITX 48.99, +2.08, +4.42%) of the Zara, Pull & Bear and Massimo Dutti chains posted profit of 483 million euros ($666 million), against 410 million euros in the year-earlier period. For 2009 as a whole, the company’s profit rose 5% to 1.31 billion euros, topping analyst estimates of 1.27 billion euros. Sales rose to 1.9 billion euros from 1.68 billion euros during the quarter, and grew 7% for the year to 11.08 billion euros, outstripping those of U.S. apparel giant Gap (GPS 23.30, +0.23, +1.00%) , on an annual basis. Sales outside its home market of Spain, currently enmeshed in a deep economic recession, accounted for 68% of total sales in 2009, versus 66% in 2008. Europe ex-Spain accounted for a 46% chunk of sales, against 45% in 2008, while Asian sales accounted for 12.2% of the total versus 10.5%. Pablo Isla, chief executive of Inditex, said in a conference call that 2009 was a year of stability for Spain, with levels of sales maintained, but space growth had not increased. Spanish sales accounted for a 31.8% portion of the overall total, down slightly from 34% in 2009. The company’s same-store sales in local currencies rose 14% from Feb. 1 to March 14. The spring and summer season will be influenced by the performance over the Easter period, owing to heavy sales volumes during the period. The company opened 343 stores in 2009. Inditex plans to open 365 to 425 new stores in 2010, with 95% of this new retail space to be located in international markets. Within these plans, 40% of the increase in stores will take place in Asia, with two stores to be opened in India starting in May. “Our priority is to focus growth in Europe and Asia,” said Isla. “We see significant opportunities in Eastern Europe [and] the Russian Federation, and there is a great potential to expand profitably in Europe for many years, as our market share is below 1% in most countries.” He said the main areas of growth for Asia are China, Japan and South Korea. “We see huge long-term potential for Inditex in Asia markets,” he said. Over the next three years, the company expects to see space growth of between 8% and 10%. Owing to strong cash-flow generation by the group, with funds from operations up 11% in 2009, Inditex’s said its board will propose a dividend of 1.20 euros per share, an increase of 14% on the previous year. Isla was asked by analysts why they aren’t paying out an even bigger portion of net income, given the group’s huge cash balance. “Our main priority is to invest in the future growth of the business. We always want a high level of flexibility … we always wanted more steady growth in the dividend, rather than big jumps,” he said. He also said that the company expected costs to grow along with its plans to open more stores. Inditex’s success has been a boon for founder and Chairman Amancio Ortega, who ranked the ninth richest man in the world in Forbes magazine’s annual list of billionaires, which was released last week. He moved up one spot from No. 10. Shares of Inditex rose nearly 3.3% to 48.49 euros in Madrid, as many analysts appeared pleased with the results, given the tough time retailers across the globe have been enduring owing to the recession. Analysts at Standard & Poor’s said good news for shareholders was the rise in the dividend and also the fact that Inditex is relying less on Spanish markets for revenue. Cost containment, they said, helped Inditex beat expectations. Gross-profit margin for Inditex in 2009 widened to 57.1% from 56.8%. In a note to investors, S&P raised its target price on Inditex to 50 euros from 42 euros, but kept its hold recommendation on the group. Analysts at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch rate the stock a buy. They see a 3% to 5% upward risk to consensus earnings estimates owing to “strong results and a good start to the first quarter.” They said shares are valued at 20 times 2010 price/earnings, which is reasonable given the “sustainable mid-teens growth in earnings per share.” “We are more relaxed than most on the Spanish consumer outlook and we think Inditex’s expansion into Asia and of its non-Zara formats should put upwards pressure on margins and returns over time,” they said in a note to investors. Story from Market Watch

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Inditex Profit Jumps 17% Q1 2010

The Spanish property market is in too much of a mess for a real BMV market to exist, according to agents specialising in distressed property in the country. Struggling developers, desperate homeowners and banks stocked with repossessions are all setting their prices according to how badly they want to sell, meaning a benchmark price is virtually impossible in many of the tourist hotspots. And without a standard to measure against, agents are left to secure whatever price they can for each situation. “Something is worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it and that’s that,” says Inez Rix, owner of Direct Auctions. “You have an open market price (not value), a bank valuation (upon which they base their lending), the offer price and the declared price at notary! No wonder there is no benchmarking for Spanish property .” The problem is so severe that one unit might be on sale for 50% less than the identical unit next door, says Darren Carter, owner of distressed agent Goldberg & Partners. “It all depends on the seller, the buyer and even the weather or what week it is as to what price will be agreed. A developer or bank might have sold three units at one price last week and not want to sell at the same price this week.” The ability to sell at a below market value is also hampered by the banks’ mortgage regulations. In Portugal, developers are offering units with 100% LTV mortgages by fixing prices at 80% of the lending bank’s valuation, effectively removing the need for a deposit. “In Spain this isn’t legal as the Bank of Spain ensures their normal lending criteria is adhered to,” says Rix. “In order to achieve a percentage of borrowing against the higher bank valuation, one now has to obtain a doctored purchase contract.” Carter says there are now better finance deals for buying bank product in Spain, “even 90 or 100% LTV on the price of the property but not including closing costs”, but the mortgage market has become too dynamic. “It feels like banks will offer one LTV one week and a different one next week once they’ve got their quota for the month.” Story from OPP (subscription)

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The Myth of BMV Spanish Property

Sterling proved to be slightly less fireproof than it had been the previous week, losing the half- cent between €1.11 and €1.1050. The low came at €1.0950 on Wednesday and sterling was staring at that same level as things got under way in London this morning. In a dull week for hard data the British economy did not have a whole lot to say for itself and what it did manage to scrabble together was not particularly edifying. Two house price indices, one from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors and the other from estate agents’ website Rightmove, damned the property market with faint praise. The RCIS house price balance, which compares the number of members reporting higher prices with those reporting lower ones, fell from 32% to 17%; still positive but more reservedly so. Rightmove’s index of asking prices went up by 0.1%; positive buy only by a technicality. UK industrial production figures were a bigger disappointment and took sterling to the lows of the week. Production (manufacturing, mining and energy lumped together) fell by -0.4% in January. Manufacturing alone was down by -0.9%. January’s trade deficit was £8 billion, the biggest since August 2008. Between August ‘08 and January ‘10 Sterling’s trade-weighted value became 23% weaker yet imports were up and exports were down. The significantly more competitive currency is still not having any positive effect on the balance of trade. Sterling also had to contend with unhelpful comments from several quarters. Credit ratings agency Fitch was ‘uncomfortable with the fiscal adjustment path set out by UK authorities’ and looked for ‘more credible and stronger fiscal consolidation plans during 2010. Credit Suisse anticipated that UK banks, collectively, would have to reduce their balance sheets by more than £500 billion over the next three or four years in order to meet new regulations. The prime minister reassured investors that Britain’s AAA credit rating was solid but not all of them were convinced, especially the researchers at UniCredit Bank who predicted that the government would have problems selling all the bonds they need to shift to finance the budget deficit. Euroland was just as starved as Britain when it came to useful statistical guidance. Investor confidence improved from -8.2 to -7.5 but the figure was still negative. It was only really euro zone industrial production that counted for anything. The +1.7% increase in January was way better than Britain’s anaemic performance, even if it did only represent a +1.7% improvement over the same month last year. More salutary than that were Germany’s trade figures. In the same month that the UK made an £8 billion loss, Germany turned a profit of almost the same amount. It did so despite what the authorities in Berlin and Paris describe as an overvalued euro. Underlying everything to do with the euro was still the co-ordinated (or not) bailout programme for Greece. Another week went by without any sign of final sign-off for the €25 billion (or thereabouts) mix of loans and guarantees that the Greek prime minister spent half the week travelling the world to engineer. As things presently stand there are several schools of thought. One believes that Greece will be able to work its own salvation, if only because it must. Another has it that Germany and France will eventually get off their high horse and put their hands in their pockets. Yet another argument is that, with or without Germany’s co-operation, Brussels cannot afford to see the economy of a euro member crumble for lack of cash. The market’s point of view, for the moment at least, is Micawberesque; ’something will turn up’. Investors are not sweating too much as long as nothing explodes. Sterling surprised many with another refusal to lie down last week despite a string of potentially damaging developments and data. However, as long as the opinion polls continue to indicate a hung parliament investors will continue to fear that even after a general election Britain’s government will be unable or unwilling to tackle the budget gap. Buyers of the euro should hedge 50% of what they will need. If the money is required in the near future they should consider covering the whole amount. Get the best foreign exchange rates with no bank fees or commission charges using your Moneycorp Privilege Card

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Sterling Rides Most of the Blows

In a bumper news week, there’s good and bad news for Spain. Let’s get the bad news out of the way first - and end on a high. Remember my soapbox rant last week about how public sector striking will only add to Spain’s woes? Well, the public won, and the government caved in over pension reforms . This is particularly bad news for Spain - who already have precious-few financial tools left to deal with their twin problems of mounting debt and growing unemployment. I have no doubt that whatever they next suggest as a solution will be opposed - and most likely defeated. Unsurprisingly, buying into Spanish government debt via bonds is now seen as a risky business . Advising investors, a Merrill Lynch spokesman said: It’s going to take a very long time - half a generation - for Spain to fix the structural issues they have. Rather than a spectacular short-term event, a more likely outcome is a death-by-a-thousand-cuts-type scenario. My prediction is that Mr Zapatero’s aversion to taking on the unions will cost him at election time. The incoming government will make drastic changes - and suffer temporary unpopularity by doing so - and Spain will eventually enjoy a more sustainable foundation for financial growth. Until then, it’s “death-by-a-thousand-cuts” for Mr Zapatero and the nation he’s supposed to be leading. And now for the good news - and there is a fair bit of it. Last week I boldly proclaimed that we had already passed the bottom of the Spanish property market . It seems that I’m not the only one who thinks so. In Spanish Property Recovery Begins , Mark Stucklin adds some data to that assertion but warns that the recovery is not happening uniformly throughout Spain, nor across all types of property. Mark’s summary is backed up by the latest TINSA house valuation trend too. No-one is predicting a spectacular U-turn in the fortunes of Spanish property - and you wouldn’t believe them if they did. Even so, any kind of a recovery is welcome news right now. There are also hints that Spain’s building societies are playing their part in the fragile recovery. An update on lending in Spain provides the cheery news that: Spanish Banks are slowly relaxing their lending criteria with one or two offering more attractive deals and higher LTV’s. And finally, in the fairly unlikely event that you’re a higher rate tax payer and employed by a Spanish company, you can now benefit from the same tax breaks as David Beckham. Martin Dell, Kyero.com

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Spanish Property: And Now for the Good News

I was involved in a bizarre situation last week. A client of mine, let´s call her Mrs. Smith, responded to a property advertisement on the internet for a 3 bed property for sale in Marbella , priced at €195,000. Another Costa del Sol property agent had advised me that he was dealing directly (and exclusively) with a local bank that had repossessed the property and that he had been asked by the bank to find a buyer within an agreed timescale of 3 weeks, of which there were 7 days remaining when my client took a look at the property.Of course, my client feel in love with this distressed property in Marbella , and a deal was agreed at the asking price. We faxed through all the necessary paperwork to the bank and advised them that we had taken a reservation deposit……..and heard precisely nothing back from them. We followed up with several phone calls over the next 48 hours, but nobody within the bank with any power to sign off the paperwork was ever available to talk to us or ever returned our calls. After the weekend we then made further efforts to make contact with the bank, and all the while Mrs. Smith was becoming increasingly frustrated and concerned that she may be in danger of losing her bargain property in Spain . But how could she lose it? The agent was operating under an exclusive agreement with the bank, so nobody else could surely arrange viewings or reservations to beat our client to the sale. But the silence continued past the expiry of the period of exclusivity, and we then received a call from one of the administrators within the bank to ensure us that the property had actually been sold. There was no explanation, no apology, no nothing. My client was distraught and very, very angry. We have since discovered exactly what happened. It seems that the details of the distressed property in Marbella were circulated to the staff of the bank as part of a regular newsletter, and at fairly late notice, a bank employee decided that he wanted to take a look at the property for himself. So during the same weekend when my client was panicking about losing the property that she had reserved in good faith, the guy from the bank was inspecting the property and securing the deal. And the reason for the delay? The buyer from the bank had to arrange his flights to Spain and was struggling to get the time off to make the trip. You see, this wasn´t a bank in Spain messing everyone around. No, no – this was a highly reputable British banking institution with an offshore division here on the Iberian peninsula. It seems that bad manners can be found everywhere. Related Posts Repossessions in Spain – worth the fuss?? Repossessions in the Spanish property market Telefonica – What´s the Problem?

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Spanish Property Buyers Lose Out to Bank Staff!

Pure investors from the UK have disappeared from a holiday home market now dominated by cash-rich lifestyle buyers, according to new research from Savills. The report from Savills International Research and holiday lettings company HomeAway.co.uk, revealed how far the overseas property market in the UK had fallen over the last year. Just 2% of the 430,000 foreign-home owners in the UK bought their property in 2009, compared to 70% who bought between 2003 and 2008. “By spring 2009 Savills International noted that interest in international holiday homes had returned, albeit at far lower levels than previous years,” said the report. “The market has now reverted back to traditional, end-user buyers (as opposed to investors), and mostly in traditional, established hotspots.” The high number of distressed sales that have contributed to oversupply and falling prices has helped keep pure investors out of the market, it added. “In contrast to previous years, investors solely seeking to capitalise on upward price movement are no longer active in the market place.” Savills’ head of international, Charles Weston-Baker, told OPP that mid-market buyers had also started to return to the market. “We have started to see more grassroots sales coming through,” he said. “The very top of the market has largely been unaffected, but now end-users who are looking for lower-priced but quality property are buying to enjoy the product. “We’ve also noticed how important sport has become to buyers, especially for baby boomers and those retiring. There’s a new enthusiasm for experiential holidays and buyers need a reason to be somewhere, such as golf or horseriding. We seem to have jumped 20 years in aging, where people are slowing down at 80 rather than 60.” The report predicts another quiet year for the UK holiday home market, with most sales taking place to high-income lifestyle buyers in traditional locations, with little activity in the speculative or off-plan markets. In 2009, although property in France, Portugal and Spanish property remained the most popular destinations for Savills’ buyers, the proportion of people buying in western Europe overall decreased, as the popularity of central and southeastern Europe (particularly Cyprus, Greece and Turkey) and the Caribbean grew. However, the sample base for 2009’s results was much smaller than in previous years. The proportion of people buying in major cities and in villages grew substantially at the expense of smaller towns and isolated rural locations. The popularity of purpose-built resorts also increased. “This reflects not only the growth in preference for such developments but also the rise in quality and quantity of such communities,” said the report. Interest in buying property to renovate or improve also fell, mirroring the rise in resorts where ready-to-go homes maximise letting potential. Savills’ market has become skewed towards mid-to-top end buyers, and properties worth more than £200,000 now form the majority of purchases, with a particular fall in popularity of homes worth less than £100,000. Story from OPP (registration)

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Spain Sees Return of International Lifestyle Buyer

German magazine Bild (equivalent to The Sun in the UK) has ruffled Greek diplomatic feathers this week. In an open letter to the Greek PM during his trip to Germany, Bild pointed out some of the differences between the two countries: “Here, people work until they are 67 and there is no 14th-month salary for civil servants. Farmers don’t swindle EU subsidies with millions of non-existent olive trees.” Bild makes its point with characteristic Sun subtlety, but news of protests in Spain , Portugal and Greece against raising the retirement age to 67 reminded me how some citizens of those countries have yet to accept responsibility for their own futures. Spanish civil servants enjoy employment for life - it’s virtually impossible to get fired. They also enjoy a 13th month extra salary - (not performance-related) . Meanwhile, tax evasion is a national pastime and the tax-office (staffed by civil-servants, remember) only go after the easy targets - individuals and businesses who are already paying tax. Spain needs pension reform, employment reform and tax reform - but I doubt whether Zapatero has the stomach or backbone for very much of that. (Steps down from soapbox) Mark Stucklin reports on how the Spanish property market grew at the end of 2009 . It’s not a massive uptick, but it’s better than a further decline. Looking at the number of estate agents advertising on Kyero.com, we reached ‘bottom’ during September last year. Since then the number of advertisers has steadily increased - and we’re now back to the same number as this time last year. Regarding traffic to Kyero.com, we’re now over 50% up - a doubling of traffic in January and February this year compared to the same period last year. If what’s happening with Kyero is an early indicator of what’s happening in the Spanish property market (and I think it is), we can expect Q4 2009 to have marked the bottom of the Spanish property market - in terms of volume of transactions at least. The rest of this week’s news centred around the fragility of the Spanish economy and I’ve included the most enlightening articles this week. The best, I think is from the NY Times - a well reasoned and comprehensive explanation of the challenges facing Mr Zapatero. Martin Dell, Kyero.com

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We’re Past the Bottom of the Spanish Property Market

There was a small uptick in Spanish housing sales during the fourth quarter of last year, according to data released today by the Ministry of Housing. Small, maybe, but enough for the Government to get excited about. “The transactions in the fourth quarter represent a rise of 4.1% with respect to the same period last year, this being the first year-on-year rise since the fourth quarter of 2006,” goes the first sentence, in bold, of the Ministry’s press release. In fact, if you just look at the ordinary housing market, the uptick was even better. Excluding social housing there were 116,664 house sales in Q4, a rise of 5.5%. Regrettably, that’s where the good news ends. Take the year as a whole, there 413,112 transactions last year, a fall of 19% compared to the previous year, and a whopping 46% down on 2007. Even the Q4 was down 33% compared to 2 years ago. Some regions did better than others. Looking at a selection of regions popular with holiday home buyers, the inland province of Teruel suffered the most in 2009, down 36%, followed by Las Palmas in The Canaries, down 32%. At the other end of the scale, Spain’s two big cities did the best, down just 1.7% in Madrid and 3.9% in Barcelona. The small national uptick in Q4 that got the Ministry excited was almost entirely driven by big increases in Catalonia and Madrid (Barcelona +35%, Madrid +41%). Why the big surge in home sales in those two cities in the last quarter of 2009? I don’t know. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it had more to do with banks shifting Spanish property around their balance sheets than families buying homes to live in. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Market Grew Q4 2009

The Ministry of Development has just released some statistics that help illustrate the severity of Spain’s construction boom and bust. What is worse, there is no quick solution as much of the trouble is stored up in a new homes glut that will take years for the market to digest. The new figures show that 387,000 new homes were finished last year, despite a property market crash already into its second year. Compare this to the 220,600 new home sales recorded by the National Institute of Statistics for 2009, and you get an over-supply of around 166,500 new homes that joined the glut of new homes languishing on the market in search of a buyer. As a result there might now be something like 1.1 to 1.2 million new homes on the market, the equivalent of the entire housing stock in Madrid. BBVA, one of Spain’s largest banks, put the figure last year at 1.1 million, to which we need to add the new 166,442 finished and not sold in 2009. The developers’ association and the Ministry of Housing are more optimistic in their estimates of between 700,000 – 750,000 new homes on the market, but even at that level it will take years for the market to absorb. How much is too many new homes? It all depends on how many new households start each year, as new household formation drives demand for new homes. Last year, there were around 225,500 new households formed in Spain, down from 300,000 plus p.a. in the boom years. New household formation surged as immigrants flooded into the country and changing demographics and life-style choice (for example and increasing divorce rate) pushed up the demand for housing. But even at the boom level of 300,000 new households a year, it is now clear that Spain was building way too much Spanish property . In 2006, for example, there were 865,500 planning approvals, (though not all of them went on to become housing starts). And in 2007 there were a record 641,500 housing completions. Now even if you assume that demand for second homes was a generous 200,000 per year, Spain was still building something like 200,000 or more excess homes per year. Now they are idling on the market, tying up capital, and dragging down the Spanish economy’s productive potential. At least supply has finally adjusted to demand, though the astonishing collapse in new residential construction is creating economic havoc (a collapse in new building is just as bad for the economy as too much building). Residential planning approvals last year were down to 110,000, the lowest level since the present data series began, and lower even than the 1970’s, when the population was much smaller. A couple of examples will illustrate how severe the shock has been. In Malaga city (550,000 residents), planning approvals have fallen from 7,500 in 2003 to 800 last year. And in Madrid, the Spanish capital, they have fallen from 35,000 in 2003 to 3,375 last year. That’s a drop of almost 90%. Therein lies the key clue to Spain’s serious economic problems. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Boom & Bust

The Ministry of Development has just released some statistics that help illustrate the severity of Spain’s construction boom and bust. What is worse, there is no quick solution as much of the trouble is stored up in a new homes glut that will take years for the market to digest. The new figures show that 387,000 new homes were finished last year, despite a property market crash already into its second year. Compare this to the 220,600 new home sales recorded by the National Institute of Statistics for 2009, and you get an over-supply of around 166,500 new homes that joined the glut of new homes languishing on the market in search of a buyer. As a result there might now be something like 1.1 to 1.2 million new homes on the market, the equivalent of the entire housing stock in Madrid. BBVA, one of Spain’s largest banks, put the figure last year at 1.1 million, to which we need to add the new 166,442 finished and not sold in 2009. The developers’ association and the Ministry of Housing are more optimistic in their estimates of between 700,000 – 750,000 new homes on the market, but even at that level it will take years for the market to absorb. How much is too many new homes? It all depends on how many new households start each year, as new household formation drives demand for new homes. Last year, there were around 225,500 new households formed in Spain, down from 300,000 plus p.a. in the boom years. New household formation surged as immigrants flooded into the country and changing demographics and life-style choice (for example and increasing divorce rate) pushed up the demand for housing. But even at the boom level of 300,000 new households a year, it is now clear that Spain was building way too much Spanish property . In 2006, for example, there were 865,500 planning approvals, (though not all of them went on to become housing starts). And in 2007 there were a record 641,500 housing completions. Now even if you assume that demand for second homes was a generous 200,000 per year, Spain was still building something like 200,000 or more excess homes per year. Now they are idling on the market, tying up capital, and dragging down the Spanish economy’s productive potential. At least supply has finally adjusted to demand, though the astonishing collapse in new residential construction is creating economic havoc (a collapse in new building is just as bad for the economy as too much building). Residential planning approvals last year were down to 110,000, the lowest level since the present data series began, and lower even than the 1970’s, when the population was much smaller. A couple of examples will illustrate how severe the shock has been. In Malaga city (550,000 residents), planning approvals have fallen from 7,500 in 2003 to 800 last year. And in Madrid, the Spanish capital, they have fallen from 35,000 in 2003 to 3,375 last year. That’s a drop of almost 90%. Therein lies the key clue to Spain’s serious economic problems. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Boom & Bust