German magazine Bild (equivalent to The Sun in the UK) has ruffled Greek diplomatic feathers this week. In an open letter to the Greek PM during his trip to Germany, Bild pointed out some of the differences between the two countries: “Here, people work until they are 67 and there is no 14th-month salary for civil servants. Farmers don’t swindle EU subsidies with millions of non-existent olive trees.” Bild makes its point with characteristic Sun subtlety, but news of protests in Spain , Portugal and Greece against raising the retirement age to 67 reminded me how some citizens of those countries have yet to accept responsibility for their own futures. Spanish civil servants enjoy employment for life - it’s virtually impossible to get fired. They also enjoy a 13th month extra salary - (not performance-related) . Meanwhile, tax evasion is a national pastime and the tax-office (staffed by civil-servants, remember) only go after the easy targets - individuals and businesses who are already paying tax. Spain needs pension reform, employment reform and tax reform - but I doubt whether Zapatero has the stomach or backbone for very much of that. (Steps down from soapbox) Mark Stucklin reports on how the Spanish property market grew at the end of 2009 . It’s not a massive uptick, but it’s better than a further decline. Looking at the number of estate agents advertising on Kyero.com, we reached ‘bottom’ during September last year. Since then the number of advertisers has steadily increased - and we’re now back to the same number as this time last year. Regarding traffic to Kyero.com, we’re now over 50% up - a doubling of traffic in January and February this year compared to the same period last year. If what’s happening with Kyero is an early indicator of what’s happening in the Spanish property market (and I think it is), we can expect Q4 2009 to have marked the bottom of the Spanish property market - in terms of volume of transactions at least. The rest of this week’s news centred around the fragility of the Spanish economy and I’ve included the most enlightening articles this week. The best, I think is from the NY Times - a well reasoned and comprehensive explanation of the challenges facing Mr Zapatero. Martin Dell, Kyero.com

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We’re Past the Bottom of the Spanish Property Market

There was a small uptick in Spanish housing sales during the fourth quarter of last year, according to data released today by the Ministry of Housing. Small, maybe, but enough for the Government to get excited about. “The transactions in the fourth quarter represent a rise of 4.1% with respect to the same period last year, this being the first year-on-year rise since the fourth quarter of 2006,” goes the first sentence, in bold, of the Ministry’s press release. In fact, if you just look at the ordinary housing market, the uptick was even better. Excluding social housing there were 116,664 house sales in Q4, a rise of 5.5%. Regrettably, that’s where the good news ends. Take the year as a whole, there 413,112 transactions last year, a fall of 19% compared to the previous year, and a whopping 46% down on 2007. Even the Q4 was down 33% compared to 2 years ago. Some regions did better than others. Looking at a selection of regions popular with holiday home buyers, the inland province of Teruel suffered the most in 2009, down 36%, followed by Las Palmas in The Canaries, down 32%. At the other end of the scale, Spain’s two big cities did the best, down just 1.7% in Madrid and 3.9% in Barcelona. The small national uptick in Q4 that got the Ministry excited was almost entirely driven by big increases in Catalonia and Madrid (Barcelona +35%, Madrid +41%). Why the big surge in home sales in those two cities in the last quarter of 2009? I don’t know. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it had more to do with banks shifting Spanish property around their balance sheets than families buying homes to live in. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Market Grew Q4 2009

The Ministry of Development has just released some statistics that help illustrate the severity of Spain’s construction boom and bust. What is worse, there is no quick solution as much of the trouble is stored up in a new homes glut that will take years for the market to digest. The new figures show that 387,000 new homes were finished last year, despite a property market crash already into its second year. Compare this to the 220,600 new home sales recorded by the National Institute of Statistics for 2009, and you get an over-supply of around 166,500 new homes that joined the glut of new homes languishing on the market in search of a buyer. As a result there might now be something like 1.1 to 1.2 million new homes on the market, the equivalent of the entire housing stock in Madrid. BBVA, one of Spain’s largest banks, put the figure last year at 1.1 million, to which we need to add the new 166,442 finished and not sold in 2009. The developers’ association and the Ministry of Housing are more optimistic in their estimates of between 700,000 – 750,000 new homes on the market, but even at that level it will take years for the market to absorb. How much is too many new homes? It all depends on how many new households start each year, as new household formation drives demand for new homes. Last year, there were around 225,500 new households formed in Spain, down from 300,000 plus p.a. in the boom years. New household formation surged as immigrants flooded into the country and changing demographics and life-style choice (for example and increasing divorce rate) pushed up the demand for housing. But even at the boom level of 300,000 new households a year, it is now clear that Spain was building way too much Spanish property . In 2006, for example, there were 865,500 planning approvals, (though not all of them went on to become housing starts). And in 2007 there were a record 641,500 housing completions. Now even if you assume that demand for second homes was a generous 200,000 per year, Spain was still building something like 200,000 or more excess homes per year. Now they are idling on the market, tying up capital, and dragging down the Spanish economy’s productive potential. At least supply has finally adjusted to demand, though the astonishing collapse in new residential construction is creating economic havoc (a collapse in new building is just as bad for the economy as too much building). Residential planning approvals last year were down to 110,000, the lowest level since the present data series began, and lower even than the 1970’s, when the population was much smaller. A couple of examples will illustrate how severe the shock has been. In Malaga city (550,000 residents), planning approvals have fallen from 7,500 in 2003 to 800 last year. And in Madrid, the Spanish capital, they have fallen from 35,000 in 2003 to 3,375 last year. That’s a drop of almost 90%. Therein lies the key clue to Spain’s serious economic problems. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Boom & Bust

The Ministry of Development has just released some statistics that help illustrate the severity of Spain’s construction boom and bust. What is worse, there is no quick solution as much of the trouble is stored up in a new homes glut that will take years for the market to digest. The new figures show that 387,000 new homes were finished last year, despite a property market crash already into its second year. Compare this to the 220,600 new home sales recorded by the National Institute of Statistics for 2009, and you get an over-supply of around 166,500 new homes that joined the glut of new homes languishing on the market in search of a buyer. As a result there might now be something like 1.1 to 1.2 million new homes on the market, the equivalent of the entire housing stock in Madrid. BBVA, one of Spain’s largest banks, put the figure last year at 1.1 million, to which we need to add the new 166,442 finished and not sold in 2009. The developers’ association and the Ministry of Housing are more optimistic in their estimates of between 700,000 – 750,000 new homes on the market, but even at that level it will take years for the market to absorb. How much is too many new homes? It all depends on how many new households start each year, as new household formation drives demand for new homes. Last year, there were around 225,500 new households formed in Spain, down from 300,000 plus p.a. in the boom years. New household formation surged as immigrants flooded into the country and changing demographics and life-style choice (for example and increasing divorce rate) pushed up the demand for housing. But even at the boom level of 300,000 new households a year, it is now clear that Spain was building way too much Spanish property . In 2006, for example, there were 865,500 planning approvals, (though not all of them went on to become housing starts). And in 2007 there were a record 641,500 housing completions. Now even if you assume that demand for second homes was a generous 200,000 per year, Spain was still building something like 200,000 or more excess homes per year. Now they are idling on the market, tying up capital, and dragging down the Spanish economy’s productive potential. At least supply has finally adjusted to demand, though the astonishing collapse in new residential construction is creating economic havoc (a collapse in new building is just as bad for the economy as too much building). Residential planning approvals last year were down to 110,000, the lowest level since the present data series began, and lower even than the 1970’s, when the population was much smaller. A couple of examples will illustrate how severe the shock has been. In Malaga city (550,000 residents), planning approvals have fallen from 7,500 in 2003 to 800 last year. And in Madrid, the Spanish capital, they have fallen from 35,000 in 2003 to 3,375 last year. That’s a drop of almost 90%. Therein lies the key clue to Spain’s serious economic problems. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Boom & Bust

Upward revision to fourth quarter economic data does sterling no favours. Germany and France consider a bailout for Greece but there are no details yet. A two-day honeymoon took sterling from €1.1350 to almost €1.1450 before it set off south. Thursday and Friday were a one-way street that took it down to €1.11 in time for London’s opening this morning. Robert Stheeman, the chap responsible for issuing UK government bonds, managed an upbeat tone when he addressed a conference in London. He said that ‘politicians of all colours are taking the [public sector debt] situation very seriously indeed. Investors derive a lot of comfort that there is agreement across the spectrum that the deficit needs to be brought under control.’ Mr Stheeman also suggested that a hung parliament might be ‘less disruptive’ than assumed. Unfortunately the market did not share his optimism and sterling spend most of the week on the slide. The rot started, as it so often does these days, with cautious words from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to parliament’s Treasury Committee. He did not go out of his way to talk sterling lower but, by refusing to rule out the possibility of further quantitative easing, made it sound as though the Bank’s printing press is ticking over and ready for more action. The governor’s comments coincided with news that mortgage approvals had dropped sharply in January with the end of the stamp duty holiday. Sterling spent the rest of the week rolling from one punch after another as investors lightened their holdings. A sharp fall in business investment at the end of last year saw investment down by 24.1% for the full year. Consumer confidence improved by three points but at -14 it still had a minus sign in front of it. Nationwide reported a -1.0% monthly fall in house prices after nine months of improvement. Britain’s overall economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2009 was revised to show growth of +0.3% instead of the +0.1% previously reported but third quarter shrinkage was also revised, from -0.2% to -0.3%. Government spending in the fourth quarter was much higher than expected. Investors did not just ignore one part of the euro zone economic story, they ignored the lot. Industrial new orders grew in December by +0.8%, less than a third of the pace seen in November but the cumulative effect of several months of improvement took the annual increase to +9.5%. Confidence figures from Brussels had little to say; consumer and economic confidence were very slightly softer while industrial confidence edged higher. Euroland inflation was roughly in line with expectations. Prices fell by -0.8% in January but were still +1.0% higher than a year ago. Greece was again the main story for the euro. Even though no solid plans emerged last week, stories at the weekend suggested the emergence of a workable solution that would see the better-heeled euro zone members buying Greek government bonds. EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn is in Athens today, apparently to negotiate a deal whereby Greece would get the support it needs in return for taking painful decisions to reduce its budget deficit. Although Germany’s Chancellor Merkel still publicly maintains that Greece’s salvation lies in Athens, not Berlin, she and other European leaders are not looking for a Pyrrhic victory that would scupper the single currency. The six weeks that sterling spent between €1.13 and €1.16 have been consigned to history With opinion polls closing the gap between Labour and Conservative to almost nothing investors fear that even after the general election Britain’s government will be paralysed by indecision, unable or unwilling to tackle the budget gap. Buyers of the euro should hedge at least 50% of what they will need. If the money will be required in the near future they should consider covering the whole amount. Get the best foreign exchange rates with no bank fees or commission charges using your Moneycorp Privilege Card

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Another week of Punishment for Sterling

There were two chinks of light permeating the same old economic gloom in this week’s Spanish property news. First, even though Spain is still officially in recession, consumption in Spanish households increased for the first time in two years. This is still a far cry from a booming economy - but at least it’s a move in the right direction. Second, Despite the news that mortgage lending is down 34% , news of competitive 100% mortgages could be just what the market needs to catalyse Spanish property buying again. One other piece of news which I’ll stick my neck out and interpret as ‘good’ is that the Spanish protests organised against raising the retirement age by two years have been poorly supported . I have no particular feelings either way about the wisdom of this pension reform - but I do feel strongly that striking is the very worst thing for Spain’s fragile economy. Yes, the politicians messed up. Yes, they should be held accountable. Yes, they should find workable solutions to revitalise Spain’s economy and reverse the spiralling unemployment rate. But striking won’t make those things happen - it will only delay them. For their part, Spain’s politicians are playing ‘fast and loose’ with the media. When speaking to international journalists and investors, they emphasise the austerity of the country’s economic plans - in an attempt to sooth investor nerves and cement Spain’s line of affordable international credit. Meanwhile in Spain, these same politicians are emphasising how it’s ‘business as normal’ and that there will be no significant cuts in public spending and no erosion of benefits. The upshot of this - since we live in an age of Google translate and the Internet - is that neither foreign investors, nor the Spanish people have any faith in anything the government says. They’re clearly ‘bending the truth’ at least 50% of the time, if not 100%. Over on the Kyero blog, we’ve discovered a way of getting Google to send you property alerts - even when the web site you’re using doesn’t offer that functionality. We apologise for annoying you with our signup forms, and we ask whether translating property descriptions really makes sense? If you have an opinion about these topics, please leave a comment and join in the conversation. Martin Dell, Kyero.com

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Spain: Two or Three Reasons to be Cheerful

Thin turnouts for union protests against an unpopular pension reform may ease pressure on the Spanish government as it seeks to calm markets with austerity measures while avoiding social conflict. A total of only a few tens of thousands of protesters showed up for marches in Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia on a chilly Tuesday evening, according to most estimates. The size of the protests, the first by the unions against Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, was being monitored by international investors for signs the government might struggle to contain social anger against the rise in the pension age to 67 from 65 and a 50 billion euro austerity plan. These measures are seen as vital if Spain is to convince markets that it can tame a budget deficit that reached 11.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2009. Doubts over Spain’s long-term credit-worthiness caused the spread of 10-year Spanish bonds over German bunds to spike to more than 100 basis points earlier this month during a scare over Greek finances. They have since eased and traded little changed at 76 basis points on Wednesday. One newspaper poll showed almost half of Spaniards would support a general strike against increasing the retirement age. But Tuesday’s turnout will reinforce suspicions that Spanish unions, which represent only 16 percent of workers, would struggle to bring the country to a halt. Juan Carlos Rodriguez, of Madrid consultancy Analistas Socio-Politicos, said: “The unions were powerful in the past, but they’ve lost it. They have much more influence in times of economic boom.” Protesters in Madrid were overwhelmingly middle-aged or older and representatives of Spain’s large immigrant population were almost completely absent. The unions also seemed to fail to attract support from people without full-time employment. “There is a very clear segmentation between the employed and the jobless,” said Jose Luis Martinez, of Citigroup. “Unemployment is at 19 percent, nearly 20 percent,” he said, adding that it was essential Spain reform the rigid labour markets which now both protect most union members and bar millions of others from finding employment. The lack of impact of the union protest was apparent in Wednesday’s session of parliament, during which it was notably missing as a major subject of debate. Nonetheless Labour Minister Celestino Corbacho repeated the government’s desire to reach negotiated deals on reforming the pension system and labour laws. “Protests are one thing. But they are not incompatible with a possible accord,” Corbacho told parliament. Apart from increasing the pensionable age, which the government says is necessary as Spain’s population gets older, the government has indicated it is willing to negotiate the length of time for which people must make contributions to the system. Story from Reuters

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Spanish Pension Reform Protest Lacks Support

The Bank of Spain is expected to increase the provisions it demands of Spanish lenders to cover property bought from struggling real estate developers. The central bank’s move would further dent bank profits already hit by economic recession, according to financial sources and bank analysts. In November, the central bank raised its provisioning requirement from 10 per cent of the property’s value to 20 per cent for real estate held more than a year, and is now expected to raise it to 30 per cent. However, it has yet to notify lenders formally. “No decision has been taken yet,” the Bank of Spain said on Monday. The probable change reflects a growing awareness among regulators and investors that Spanish banks and cajas, the unlisted savings and loan institutions, have massaged their bad loan ratios by refinancing property developers in exchange for Spanish property and equity in the companies, instead of allowing them to collapse. Iberian Equities, the broker, estimated on Monday that listed Spanish banks had property assets of more than €12.6bn ($17.1bn) at the end of last year, while the cajas held €33bn. Santander and BBVA, the two biggest banks, have taken impairments of about 30 per cent. But the proposed increase in provisioning requirements would amount to €1bn, or a fifth, of 2010 profits for smaller banks, and €5.3bn-€5.9bn, or a fifth, of profits for the cajas, Iberian Equities said. A flurry of recent debt-for-assets and debt-for-equity swaps – involving developers including Colonial, Reyal Urbis and Metrovacesa – has deepened the scepticism of analysts and investors about the true bad loan positions of Spanish lenders. Total exposure to developers is €324bn. “While banks’ doubtful domestic loans have risen quickly over the last two years, the recognition of impaired assets has been far slower than the severity of the recession might otherwise suggest,” wrote Jamie Dannhauser of Lombard Street Research. There are particular suspicions about the way the collective bad loan ratio of the cajas has reached a plateau and started to decline, down to 5.05 per cent of assets in December. That is only slightly higher than the 5.02 per cent figure for the banks, whose accounts are generally more transparent. If the numbers were correct, that would be the “best news on the Spanish economy I’ve heard for a long time”, said Luis Garicano, professor of economics and strategy at the London School of Economics, in a blog on Spain. “Personally, I don’t believe it. The alternative is that the bad loan numbers of the cajas don’t make a lot of sense.” Prof Garicano said it would not be possible to re-establish the credibility of the financial system if the regulator permitted “these accounting games”. The Bank of Spain’s expected tightening of its provisioning requirements could go some way towards defusing such criticism. Story from FT.com

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Spanish Banks Face Higher Provisions

Jump in UK inflation is a ‘temporary deviation’. Greek prime minister likens his economy to the Titanic. Having set off from €1.15 the pound fluctuated between €1.14 and €1.1550 until the middle of the week. On Thursday it took a dive, which was extended on Friday. It opened in London this morning off its lows - but only just - at €1.1350. The week got off to a slow start with bank holidays in Switzerland, Canada and the United States. The lunar new year put China and much of the Far East on a go-slow for several days. Things started to become interesting for sterling on Tuesday with January’s consumer price index data. As most analysts had predicted - and the Bank of England had warned - CPI inflation jumped from 2.9% to 3.5%, appreciably above the Bank’s 1 target range. In the Governor’s compulsory open letter to the chancellor he called it a ‘temporary deviation’ and repeated his belief that ‘weakness in spending… will bear down on inflationary pressures over time.’ If that was the good news, the bad news on Thursday was that the Treasury had had to borrow £4.2 billion in January. The Treasury never has to borrow money in January; that’s when a big chunk of the annual tax revenue comes in. The Times summed up the situation as ‘On borrowed time: shock deficit threatens UK recovery.’ January’s retail sales figures, released on Friday morning, were no help to sterling either. The -1.8% monthly decline was a surprise to forecasters, as was the downward revision which showed sales falling in December as well. An interesting debate in the press showed how opinion is divided about what course of action the government should take to bring its budget deficit back into line. The Sunday Times printed a letter from 20 respected economists highlighting the dangers of Downing Street doing nothing. Friday’s Financial Times carried a response from 60 other, equally well-respected, economists saying that nothing is a very good thing to do until the economy gets back on its feet. Although disagreement among economists is nothing new, the exchange of views highlighted Downing Street’s dilemma. Finding itself in a state of anxiety fatigue after weeks of angst about the difficulties of the debt situation in Athens, the market came to the conclusion that Greece was not about to be lost with all hands. It did so despite new revelations that the previous government had arranged swap trades with about 15 investment banks to hide (it is alleged) the size of its deficit. Investors also managed to ignore some unfortunate sound-bites from Greek prime minister Papandreou. On one occasion he said that ‘we are trying to change the course of the Titanic; it cannot be done in a day’; an unfortunate simile. At the weekend he said he was not looking for a bailout because ‘our borrowing needs are covered until mid-March’, not exactly far away on the calendar. He elaborated by explaining that ‘we need the help so that we can borrow at the same rate as other countries, not at high rates which in fact undermine our possibility for making the changes and cutting down our deficit.’ In other words Greece is not asking for actual cash but it is looking for guarantees that will allow it to borrow in the market. Basically, Greece wants the use of France and Germany’s credit cards. After three months spent between €1.09 and €1.13 the pound is clinging to a slightly higher range, between €1.13 and €1.16, despite last week’s unhelpful news. Although its profile is now a little lower, the Greek albatross remains a burden, balancing investors’ slightly different worries about Britain’s political and financial situation. Buyers of the euro should take advantage of any spikes to hedge 50% of their exposure. Get the best foreign exchange rates with no bank fees or commission charges using your Moneycorp Privilege Card

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January Spending Gap Hurts Strerling

Buyers in Spain could be able to secure 100% mortgages for the first time during the downturn thanks to a new developer-bank partnership. Customers buying from UK-based developer Almanzora Group will be able to apply for 100% loan-to-value finance through the Bank of Andalusia on properties with discounts of up to 55% off peak price. The developer has been selling around three properties per week since the start of the year and hopes the new mortgage offer will provide an extra boost to the Spanish property market. The large discounts make the properties more affordable and so the bank can feel more confident about buyers’ ability to repay the loan, said Almanzora’s sales and marketing manager Simon Coaker. “In some cases, the mortgage available is larger than the amount actually payable by the purchaser,” he said. “This is because, following last year’s price reductions, current prices of a number of properties are actually lower than the bank valuations.” Although the number of mortgages issued in Spain rose year-on-year for the first time in two years in November 2009, such high loan-to-value rates have become almost unheard of in Spain due to increased conservatism among lenders. However, banks are more likely to lend to customers buying repossessed properties or from developers backed by bank funding. “There are some 85% loan-to-value loans available for bank-owned properties but generally there is still little movement in the market,” said Clare Nessling, operations director for international mortgage broker Conti. Coaker told OPP that Almanzora was in partnership with the Bank of Andalusia to fund certain elements of its projects, but that the bank also wanted to take advantage of the sales opportunity. “The banks have seen us doing well and are interested in dealing with our clients,” he said. “Some of our own mortgages are with the Bank of Andalusia but they have competed against other banks for our customers’ business.” Addressing the long-term sustainability of such large price reductions, he said: “We wanted to create real interest in the property so have allied a mortgage product to selective discounts that will incentivise the market. But we think the 55% discounted stock will sell very quickly and we anticipate raising prices hopefully by mid-year.” Story from OPP (registration required)

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100% Mortgages to Boost Spanish Property Market