Spanish property price fell by an average of just 4.3% last year, according to the official house price index prepared by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Everyone in the business knows that average prices fell much more than that, so why is the INE publishing figures that invite ridicule and risk making foreign observers suspect that the official figures in Spain can’t be trusted? It’s an important question, but one I can’t confidently answer. The INE gets its data from the Notaries, so either the data is flawed, or someone is manipulating it, or I’m completely wrong, along with everyone else in the business I have talked to. According to the admittedly anecdotal information I get from talking to lots of different people in the property business all over Spain, average prices are down something in the region of 40% since the peak around 2006 to 2007, and fell at least 10% last year, perhaps as much as 20%, which would be hardly surprising in a year marked by a massive property crisis and credit drought. So how come the Notaries are saying prices fell just 4.3% last year, and by just 10% since the peak? Even more difficult to believe, they say resale property prices fell just 3.5% last year, and actually rose by 0.1% on a quarterly basis in the last 3 months of the year, all this at a time when mortgages were hard to get and credit conditions tightened dramatically. It doesn’t make any sense. If the data is to be believed, 2009 was a much better year on a quarterly basis than 2008. The data would have us believe that prices fell by less than 1% in 3 out of 4 quarters last year, and by just 0.4% in 2 of them. How likely is that during a credit crunch, with a monumental property glut, dramatically falling property sales, 20% unemployment, and a shrinking economy? If you are still not convinced then have a look at Murcia, a region devastated by the property crash. According to the INE’s index, prices didn’t fall at all in Murcia last year, having fallen a paltry 0.8% the previous year. But you try selling a new property on one of Murcia’s many golf developments and see how far you have to drop your pants to find a buyer. To make matters worse, leading papers like El Pais accept the INE’s figures without doubt, despite the obvious questions they raise. Having first warned everyone waiting for prices to drop that they will be disappointed today’s El Pais goes on to say: It is true that, according to the INE, prices fell 4.3% last year. It is also true that quarterly price falls are getting smaller (-0.4% between October and December). And it’s now possible to find the first positive change: resales increased in price by 0.1% in the last quarter. That’s the first rise in 2 years. The article does not at any point question the figures. With figures like these I wouldn’t blame foreign observers from wondering if Spain is doing a bit of a Greece with its figures. In my opinion, these figures won’t fool anyone who counts. Story from Mark Stucklin

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It’s Official: Spanish House Price Index is Ridiculous

The Spanish property market is in too much of a mess for a real BMV market to exist, according to agents specialising in distressed property in the country. Struggling developers, desperate homeowners and banks stocked with repossessions are all setting their prices according to how badly they want to sell, meaning a benchmark price is virtually impossible in many of the tourist hotspots. And without a standard to measure against, agents are left to secure whatever price they can for each situation. “Something is worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it and that’s that,” says Inez Rix, owner of Direct Auctions. “You have an open market price (not value), a bank valuation (upon which they base their lending), the offer price and the declared price at notary! No wonder there is no benchmarking for Spanish property .” The problem is so severe that one unit might be on sale for 50% less than the identical unit next door, says Darren Carter, owner of distressed agent Goldberg & Partners. “It all depends on the seller, the buyer and even the weather or what week it is as to what price will be agreed. A developer or bank might have sold three units at one price last week and not want to sell at the same price this week.” The ability to sell at a below market value is also hampered by the banks’ mortgage regulations. In Portugal, developers are offering units with 100% LTV mortgages by fixing prices at 80% of the lending bank’s valuation, effectively removing the need for a deposit. “In Spain this isn’t legal as the Bank of Spain ensures their normal lending criteria is adhered to,” says Rix. “In order to achieve a percentage of borrowing against the higher bank valuation, one now has to obtain a doctored purchase contract.” Carter says there are now better finance deals for buying bank product in Spain, “even 90 or 100% LTV on the price of the property but not including closing costs”, but the mortgage market has become too dynamic. “It feels like banks will offer one LTV one week and a different one next week once they’ve got their quota for the month.” Story from OPP (subscription)

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The Myth of BMV Spanish Property

A Foreign Office minister warned Spain on Sunday that knocking down British expatriates’ houses was hurting its economy. Chris Bryant, Minister for Europe, said that the country was undermining efforts to create a recovery in its beleaguered housing market. He was speaking yesterday during a visit to south-eastern Spain to meet British expatriates who have been told that their homes will be bulldozed after Spanish authorities declared their construction illegal. The authorities there have been waging a campaign against former officials accused of allowing overdevelopment of coastal regions. Local governments issued building licences for the properties, but these were later nullified following court action instigated by a higher regional government. Mr Bryant cautioned: “The Spanish property market is not going to recover quickly if pictures of bulldozers knocking down expats’ homes are appearing in British newspapers. Everyone I’ve spoken to in Spain says they want to find a solution but wanting a solution and getting one are two different things. He said: “Obviously it’s not for the British Government to tell the Spanish what to do. But I’m pushing the message hard at all government levels that I meet here that they have got to put political willpower into these problems, whether it’s an amnesty, whether it’s a change in the law, whatever the solution is that is needed. That is the point I am pushing. I have to say also that there is an enormous difference between the Britons who just make a cursory legal deal – that is always ill advised – and those who have done everything they should or could have done but still find themselves in deep trouble. Mr Bryant spent the weekend advising expatriates in Andalucia on issues ranging from property rights to health care. He visited Torrevieja, the fastest-growing town on the Costa Blanca, Malaga, the capital of the Costa del Sol, and the town of Albox, where eight British families are fighting demolition orders issued at the end of last year. John and Muriel Burns were among the first to receive the demolition orders in Albox. The pensioners emigrated to Spain in 2001. “They did everything to dot the ‘I’s and cross the ‘T’s that they possibly could have to obtain the permission they required” to build their dream house, Mr Bryant said. But it turns out that the permission should not have been given. That was no fault of theirs whatsoever – but now they face the prospect of having their home demolished. After hearing that his home would be bulldozed, Mr Burns declared that he and his wife would chain themselves to the house. “If this building comes down, then we will be underneath it,” he said. Mr Bryant said he was able to tell worried Britons that the Andalusian regional government was appointing a full-time official to deal with the concerns of British expatriates. The official will provide advice on property regulations, health care and residence requirements. Mr Bryant warned: People buying property anywhere abroad, not just in Spain, have to take at least twice as much trouble as they do at home to make sure everything is legal. It is so easy to go to a lawyer because he’s cheaper. Then later you find out that he wasn’t an independent lawyer at all, but was working all the time on behalf of the land developer and you are really stuffed. Story from The Telegraph

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Bulldozing Expat Homes is Hurting Spanish Economy

Pure investors from the UK have disappeared from a holiday home market now dominated by cash-rich lifestyle buyers, according to new research from Savills. The report from Savills International Research and holiday lettings company HomeAway.co.uk, revealed how far the overseas property market in the UK had fallen over the last year. Just 2% of the 430,000 foreign-home owners in the UK bought their property in 2009, compared to 70% who bought between 2003 and 2008. “By spring 2009 Savills International noted that interest in international holiday homes had returned, albeit at far lower levels than previous years,” said the report. “The market has now reverted back to traditional, end-user buyers (as opposed to investors), and mostly in traditional, established hotspots.” The high number of distressed sales that have contributed to oversupply and falling prices has helped keep pure investors out of the market, it added. “In contrast to previous years, investors solely seeking to capitalise on upward price movement are no longer active in the market place.” Savills’ head of international, Charles Weston-Baker, told OPP that mid-market buyers had also started to return to the market. “We have started to see more grassroots sales coming through,” he said. “The very top of the market has largely been unaffected, but now end-users who are looking for lower-priced but quality property are buying to enjoy the product. “We’ve also noticed how important sport has become to buyers, especially for baby boomers and those retiring. There’s a new enthusiasm for experiential holidays and buyers need a reason to be somewhere, such as golf or horseriding. We seem to have jumped 20 years in aging, where people are slowing down at 80 rather than 60.” The report predicts another quiet year for the UK holiday home market, with most sales taking place to high-income lifestyle buyers in traditional locations, with little activity in the speculative or off-plan markets. In 2009, although property in France, Portugal and Spanish property remained the most popular destinations for Savills’ buyers, the proportion of people buying in western Europe overall decreased, as the popularity of central and southeastern Europe (particularly Cyprus, Greece and Turkey) and the Caribbean grew. However, the sample base for 2009’s results was much smaller than in previous years. The proportion of people buying in major cities and in villages grew substantially at the expense of smaller towns and isolated rural locations. The popularity of purpose-built resorts also increased. “This reflects not only the growth in preference for such developments but also the rise in quality and quantity of such communities,” said the report. Interest in buying property to renovate or improve also fell, mirroring the rise in resorts where ready-to-go homes maximise letting potential. Savills’ market has become skewed towards mid-to-top end buyers, and properties worth more than £200,000 now form the majority of purchases, with a particular fall in popularity of homes worth less than £100,000. Story from OPP (registration)

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Spain Sees Return of International Lifestyle Buyer

German magazine Bild (equivalent to The Sun in the UK) has ruffled Greek diplomatic feathers this week. In an open letter to the Greek PM during his trip to Germany, Bild pointed out some of the differences between the two countries: “Here, people work until they are 67 and there is no 14th-month salary for civil servants. Farmers don’t swindle EU subsidies with millions of non-existent olive trees.” Bild makes its point with characteristic Sun subtlety, but news of protests in Spain , Portugal and Greece against raising the retirement age to 67 reminded me how some citizens of those countries have yet to accept responsibility for their own futures. Spanish civil servants enjoy employment for life - it’s virtually impossible to get fired. They also enjoy a 13th month extra salary - (not performance-related) . Meanwhile, tax evasion is a national pastime and the tax-office (staffed by civil-servants, remember) only go after the easy targets - individuals and businesses who are already paying tax. Spain needs pension reform, employment reform and tax reform - but I doubt whether Zapatero has the stomach or backbone for very much of that. (Steps down from soapbox) Mark Stucklin reports on how the Spanish property market grew at the end of 2009 . It’s not a massive uptick, but it’s better than a further decline. Looking at the number of estate agents advertising on Kyero.com, we reached ‘bottom’ during September last year. Since then the number of advertisers has steadily increased - and we’re now back to the same number as this time last year. Regarding traffic to Kyero.com, we’re now over 50% up - a doubling of traffic in January and February this year compared to the same period last year. If what’s happening with Kyero is an early indicator of what’s happening in the Spanish property market (and I think it is), we can expect Q4 2009 to have marked the bottom of the Spanish property market - in terms of volume of transactions at least. The rest of this week’s news centred around the fragility of the Spanish economy and I’ve included the most enlightening articles this week. The best, I think is from the NY Times - a well reasoned and comprehensive explanation of the challenges facing Mr Zapatero. Martin Dell, Kyero.com

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We’re Past the Bottom of the Spanish Property Market

There was a small uptick in Spanish housing sales during the fourth quarter of last year, according to data released today by the Ministry of Housing. Small, maybe, but enough for the Government to get excited about. “The transactions in the fourth quarter represent a rise of 4.1% with respect to the same period last year, this being the first year-on-year rise since the fourth quarter of 2006,” goes the first sentence, in bold, of the Ministry’s press release. In fact, if you just look at the ordinary housing market, the uptick was even better. Excluding social housing there were 116,664 house sales in Q4, a rise of 5.5%. Regrettably, that’s where the good news ends. Take the year as a whole, there 413,112 transactions last year, a fall of 19% compared to the previous year, and a whopping 46% down on 2007. Even the Q4 was down 33% compared to 2 years ago. Some regions did better than others. Looking at a selection of regions popular with holiday home buyers, the inland province of Teruel suffered the most in 2009, down 36%, followed by Las Palmas in The Canaries, down 32%. At the other end of the scale, Spain’s two big cities did the best, down just 1.7% in Madrid and 3.9% in Barcelona. The small national uptick in Q4 that got the Ministry excited was almost entirely driven by big increases in Catalonia and Madrid (Barcelona +35%, Madrid +41%). Why the big surge in home sales in those two cities in the last quarter of 2009? I don’t know. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it had more to do with banks shifting Spanish property around their balance sheets than families buying homes to live in. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Market Grew Q4 2009

The Ministry of Development has just released some statistics that help illustrate the severity of Spain’s construction boom and bust. What is worse, there is no quick solution as much of the trouble is stored up in a new homes glut that will take years for the market to digest. The new figures show that 387,000 new homes were finished last year, despite a property market crash already into its second year. Compare this to the 220,600 new home sales recorded by the National Institute of Statistics for 2009, and you get an over-supply of around 166,500 new homes that joined the glut of new homes languishing on the market in search of a buyer. As a result there might now be something like 1.1 to 1.2 million new homes on the market, the equivalent of the entire housing stock in Madrid. BBVA, one of Spain’s largest banks, put the figure last year at 1.1 million, to which we need to add the new 166,442 finished and not sold in 2009. The developers’ association and the Ministry of Housing are more optimistic in their estimates of between 700,000 – 750,000 new homes on the market, but even at that level it will take years for the market to absorb. How much is too many new homes? It all depends on how many new households start each year, as new household formation drives demand for new homes. Last year, there were around 225,500 new households formed in Spain, down from 300,000 plus p.a. in the boom years. New household formation surged as immigrants flooded into the country and changing demographics and life-style choice (for example and increasing divorce rate) pushed up the demand for housing. But even at the boom level of 300,000 new households a year, it is now clear that Spain was building way too much Spanish property . In 2006, for example, there were 865,500 planning approvals, (though not all of them went on to become housing starts). And in 2007 there were a record 641,500 housing completions. Now even if you assume that demand for second homes was a generous 200,000 per year, Spain was still building something like 200,000 or more excess homes per year. Now they are idling on the market, tying up capital, and dragging down the Spanish economy’s productive potential. At least supply has finally adjusted to demand, though the astonishing collapse in new residential construction is creating economic havoc (a collapse in new building is just as bad for the economy as too much building). Residential planning approvals last year were down to 110,000, the lowest level since the present data series began, and lower even than the 1970’s, when the population was much smaller. A couple of examples will illustrate how severe the shock has been. In Malaga city (550,000 residents), planning approvals have fallen from 7,500 in 2003 to 800 last year. And in Madrid, the Spanish capital, they have fallen from 35,000 in 2003 to 3,375 last year. That’s a drop of almost 90%. Therein lies the key clue to Spain’s serious economic problems. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Boom & Bust

The Ministry of Development has just released some statistics that help illustrate the severity of Spain’s construction boom and bust. What is worse, there is no quick solution as much of the trouble is stored up in a new homes glut that will take years for the market to digest. The new figures show that 387,000 new homes were finished last year, despite a property market crash already into its second year. Compare this to the 220,600 new home sales recorded by the National Institute of Statistics for 2009, and you get an over-supply of around 166,500 new homes that joined the glut of new homes languishing on the market in search of a buyer. As a result there might now be something like 1.1 to 1.2 million new homes on the market, the equivalent of the entire housing stock in Madrid. BBVA, one of Spain’s largest banks, put the figure last year at 1.1 million, to which we need to add the new 166,442 finished and not sold in 2009. The developers’ association and the Ministry of Housing are more optimistic in their estimates of between 700,000 – 750,000 new homes on the market, but even at that level it will take years for the market to absorb. How much is too many new homes? It all depends on how many new households start each year, as new household formation drives demand for new homes. Last year, there were around 225,500 new households formed in Spain, down from 300,000 plus p.a. in the boom years. New household formation surged as immigrants flooded into the country and changing demographics and life-style choice (for example and increasing divorce rate) pushed up the demand for housing. But even at the boom level of 300,000 new households a year, it is now clear that Spain was building way too much Spanish property . In 2006, for example, there were 865,500 planning approvals, (though not all of them went on to become housing starts). And in 2007 there were a record 641,500 housing completions. Now even if you assume that demand for second homes was a generous 200,000 per year, Spain was still building something like 200,000 or more excess homes per year. Now they are idling on the market, tying up capital, and dragging down the Spanish economy’s productive potential. At least supply has finally adjusted to demand, though the astonishing collapse in new residential construction is creating economic havoc (a collapse in new building is just as bad for the economy as too much building). Residential planning approvals last year were down to 110,000, the lowest level since the present data series began, and lower even than the 1970’s, when the population was much smaller. A couple of examples will illustrate how severe the shock has been. In Malaga city (550,000 residents), planning approvals have fallen from 7,500 in 2003 to 800 last year. And in Madrid, the Spanish capital, they have fallen from 35,000 in 2003 to 3,375 last year. That’s a drop of almost 90%. Therein lies the key clue to Spain’s serious economic problems. Story from Mark Stucklin

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Spanish Property Boom & Bust

Upward revision to fourth quarter economic data does sterling no favours. Germany and France consider a bailout for Greece but there are no details yet. A two-day honeymoon took sterling from €1.1350 to almost €1.1450 before it set off south. Thursday and Friday were a one-way street that took it down to €1.11 in time for London’s opening this morning. Robert Stheeman, the chap responsible for issuing UK government bonds, managed an upbeat tone when he addressed a conference in London. He said that ‘politicians of all colours are taking the [public sector debt] situation very seriously indeed. Investors derive a lot of comfort that there is agreement across the spectrum that the deficit needs to be brought under control.’ Mr Stheeman also suggested that a hung parliament might be ‘less disruptive’ than assumed. Unfortunately the market did not share his optimism and sterling spend most of the week on the slide. The rot started, as it so often does these days, with cautious words from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to parliament’s Treasury Committee. He did not go out of his way to talk sterling lower but, by refusing to rule out the possibility of further quantitative easing, made it sound as though the Bank’s printing press is ticking over and ready for more action. The governor’s comments coincided with news that mortgage approvals had dropped sharply in January with the end of the stamp duty holiday. Sterling spent the rest of the week rolling from one punch after another as investors lightened their holdings. A sharp fall in business investment at the end of last year saw investment down by 24.1% for the full year. Consumer confidence improved by three points but at -14 it still had a minus sign in front of it. Nationwide reported a -1.0% monthly fall in house prices after nine months of improvement. Britain’s overall economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2009 was revised to show growth of +0.3% instead of the +0.1% previously reported but third quarter shrinkage was also revised, from -0.2% to -0.3%. Government spending in the fourth quarter was much higher than expected. Investors did not just ignore one part of the euro zone economic story, they ignored the lot. Industrial new orders grew in December by +0.8%, less than a third of the pace seen in November but the cumulative effect of several months of improvement took the annual increase to +9.5%. Confidence figures from Brussels had little to say; consumer and economic confidence were very slightly softer while industrial confidence edged higher. Euroland inflation was roughly in line with expectations. Prices fell by -0.8% in January but were still +1.0% higher than a year ago. Greece was again the main story for the euro. Even though no solid plans emerged last week, stories at the weekend suggested the emergence of a workable solution that would see the better-heeled euro zone members buying Greek government bonds. EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn is in Athens today, apparently to negotiate a deal whereby Greece would get the support it needs in return for taking painful decisions to reduce its budget deficit. Although Germany’s Chancellor Merkel still publicly maintains that Greece’s salvation lies in Athens, not Berlin, she and other European leaders are not looking for a Pyrrhic victory that would scupper the single currency. The six weeks that sterling spent between €1.13 and €1.16 have been consigned to history With opinion polls closing the gap between Labour and Conservative to almost nothing investors fear that even after the general election Britain’s government will be paralysed by indecision, unable or unwilling to tackle the budget gap. Buyers of the euro should hedge at least 50% of what they will need. If the money will be required in the near future they should consider covering the whole amount. Get the best foreign exchange rates with no bank fees or commission charges using your Moneycorp Privilege Card

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Another week of Punishment for Sterling

There were two chinks of light permeating the same old economic gloom in this week’s Spanish property news. First, even though Spain is still officially in recession, consumption in Spanish households increased for the first time in two years. This is still a far cry from a booming economy - but at least it’s a move in the right direction. Second, Despite the news that mortgage lending is down 34% , news of competitive 100% mortgages could be just what the market needs to catalyse Spanish property buying again. One other piece of news which I’ll stick my neck out and interpret as ‘good’ is that the Spanish protests organised against raising the retirement age by two years have been poorly supported . I have no particular feelings either way about the wisdom of this pension reform - but I do feel strongly that striking is the very worst thing for Spain’s fragile economy. Yes, the politicians messed up. Yes, they should be held accountable. Yes, they should find workable solutions to revitalise Spain’s economy and reverse the spiralling unemployment rate. But striking won’t make those things happen - it will only delay them. For their part, Spain’s politicians are playing ‘fast and loose’ with the media. When speaking to international journalists and investors, they emphasise the austerity of the country’s economic plans - in an attempt to sooth investor nerves and cement Spain’s line of affordable international credit. Meanwhile in Spain, these same politicians are emphasising how it’s ‘business as normal’ and that there will be no significant cuts in public spending and no erosion of benefits. The upshot of this - since we live in an age of Google translate and the Internet - is that neither foreign investors, nor the Spanish people have any faith in anything the government says. They’re clearly ‘bending the truth’ at least 50% of the time, if not 100%. Over on the Kyero blog, we’ve discovered a way of getting Google to send you property alerts - even when the web site you’re using doesn’t offer that functionality. We apologise for annoying you with our signup forms, and we ask whether translating property descriptions really makes sense? If you have an opinion about these topics, please leave a comment and join in the conversation. Martin Dell, Kyero.com

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Spain: Two or Three Reasons to be Cheerful